Here are some links to things I've been reading that you might also enjoy:
1. ‘On the Historical Unity of the Russians and Ukrainians’, an English translation of Putin's lengthy 12 July 2021 essay – one of the strongest early signals of his intention to invade Ukraine. (Note: if you try to access the link, the Kremlin's official site may still be down due to DDoS attacks.)
2. The 22 December 2021 Twitter thread by Dmitri Alperovitch that convinced me that a Russian invasion of Ukraine around February 2022 was more likely than not.
3. 'What are the chances of war?', a 2016 Significance article by Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Taleb.