#87: In The Foothills Of A Pandemic – Yaneer Bar–Yam

Yaneer Bar-Yam is a physicist and the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute.

Show notes

Selected links

• Follow Yaneer: Website | Twitter
• Endcoronavirus.org
• Dynamics of Complex Systems, by Yaneer Bar-Yam
• Making Things Work, by Yaneer Bar-Yam
• ‘Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)’, research by Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie
• Powers of Ten YouTube video
• ‘An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and Its Applications’, 2019 paper by Alexander Siegenfeld and Yaneer Bar-Yam
• ‘The Architecture of Complexity’, 1962 paper by Herbert Simon
• ‘Science and Complexity’, 1948 paper by Warren Weaver
• ‘More is Different’, 1972 paper by Phil Anderson
• Scale, by Geoffrey West
• Johns Hopkins University coronavirus interactive map
• ‘Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens — Coronavirus: Note’, January 2020 note by Nassim Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Joe Norman
• The Square And The Tower, by Niall Ferguson
• ‘Long-range interaction and evolutionary stability in a predator-prey system’, 2006 paper by Erik Rauch and Yaneer Bar-Yam
• ‘Transition to Extinction’, 2016 article by Yaneer Bar-Yam
• ‘Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic’, 2007 paper by Howard Markel et al
• ‘Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic’, 2006 paper by Neil Ferguson et al
• Join the fellowship of the doers: necsivolunteers@gmail.com

Topics discussed

• Yaneer’s background and parents. 11:39
• Powers of Ten. 12:06
• Highlights from Yaneer’s time as an MIT student. 15:29
• The role of chance in our lives. 21:28
• What is “complexity”? 25:42
• Complex systems. 30:23
• Emergence. 37:06
• Phase transitions. 44:26
• Self-organization. 49:48
• Universality. 55:12
• Applying complex systems science to the Arab Spring. 1:03:13
• Taking stock of the coronavirus epidemic. 1:12:47
• What is the current best estimate for the coronavirus’ R0? 1:13:39
• Fat-tailedness and super-spreaders. 1:17:13
• What is the coronavirus’ fatality rate? 1:21:45
• Will the coronavirus obey seasonality? 1:26:33
• Why are historical base rates — for example of Spanish influenza — of limited use in forecasting the spread and impact of coronavirus? 1:28:08
• The risks of increased global transportation. 1:28:56
• Which details should we focus on and which details should we ignore in the spread of the coronavirus? 1:36:58
• What approaches do governments need to take to stop the virus from spreading? 1:39:24
• Will western governments take the dramatic steps needed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus? 1:48:15
• If our governments fail to prevent a pandemic, what steps do we need to take as individuals? 1:53:13
• How can people volunteer their efforts to stop the virus from spreading? 2:04:30