#87: In The Foothills Of A Pandemic – Yaneer Bar–Yam

Yaneer Bar-Yam is a physicist and the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute.

Show notes

Selected links

Follow Yaneer: Website | Twitter
Endcoronavirus.org
Dynamics of Complex Systems, by Yaneer Bar-Yam
Making Things Work, by Yaneer Bar-Yam
‘Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)’, research by Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie
Powers of Ten YouTube video
‘An Introduction to Complex Systems Science and Its Applications’, 2019 paper by Alexander Siegenfeld and Yaneer Bar-Yam
‘The Architecture of Complexity’, 1962 paper by Herbert Simon
‘Science and Complexity’, 1948 paper by Warren Weaver
‘More is Different’, 1972 paper by Phil Anderson
Scale, by Geoffrey West
Johns Hopkins University coronavirus interactive map
‘Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens — Coronavirus: Note’, January 2020 note by Nassim Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Joe Norman
The Square And The Tower, by Niall Ferguson
‘Long-range interaction and evolutionary stability in a predator-prey system’, 2006 paper by Erik Rauch and Yaneer Bar-Yam
‘Transition to Extinction’, 2016 article by Yaneer Bar-Yam
‘Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic’, 2007 paper by Howard Markel et al
‘Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic’, 2006 paper by Neil Ferguson et al
Join the fellowship of the doers: [email protected]

Topics discussed

Yaneer’s background and parents. 11:39
Powers of Ten. 12:06
Highlights from Yaneer’s time as an MIT student. 15:29
The role of chance in our lives. 21:28
What is “complexity”? 25:42
Complex systems. 30:23
Emergence. 37:06
Phase transitions. 44:26
Self-organization. 49:48
Universality. 55:12
Applying complex systems science to the Arab Spring. 1:03:13
Taking stock of the coronavirus epidemic. 1:12:47
What is the current best estimate for the coronavirus’ R0? 1:13:39
Fat-tailedness and super-spreaders. 1:17:13
What is the coronavirus’ fatality rate? 1:21:45
Will the coronavirus obey seasonality? 1:26:33
Why are historical base rates — for example of Spanish influenza — of limited use in forecasting the spread and impact of coronavirus? 1:28:08
The risks of increased global transportation. 1:28:56
Which details should we focus on and which details should we ignore in the spread of the coronavirus? 1:36:58
What approaches do governments need to take to stop the virus from spreading? 1:39:24
Will western governments take the dramatic steps needed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus? 1:48:15
If our governments fail to prevent a pandemic, what steps do we need to take as individuals? 1:53:13
How can people volunteer their efforts to stop the virus from spreading? 2:04:30